A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
